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princessxxxHousing, GDP Data on Tap in Coming Week
Posted by tothewire on November 22, 2008
The storm of bearish economic data is expected to calm — but not dissipate — in the coming week, which will be light and short due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday. 
The ailing housing market will be first to enter the spotlight. This week, we saw housing starts and permits — both indicators of new residential construction — plummeting to record-breaking lows. Existing home sales for October, which are scheduled to be released Monday, are expected to weaken after jumping in September.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the third quarter will also be released next week, and economists expect home prices to sink 16% as compared with the same quarter last year.
Economic growth will also be the subject of attention early in the week. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which gauges the overall economic and inflationary situation, is scheduled to be released Monday. Although data have shown the economy is contracting, lower consumer and producer prices might help to mitigate some of the downward pressure on this indicator.
The second revision of the national Gross Domestic Product will be released Tuesday. GDP is widely considered the most comprehensive indicator of economic growth. The first release showed the economy contracting 0.3% in the third quarter, but economists expect it to be revised lower to a 0.7% contraction.
The labor market has rapidly deteriorated according to data released in the last couple of weeks. Data from the Labor Department showed initial unemployment claims surging to a 16-year high of 542,000 for the week ended Nov. 14. It would take a major improvement in the weekly data release to push them back below the psychologically important 500,000 level. Although the weekly release tends to be subject to short-run volatility, economists say big upward movements in unemployment claims could suggest the number of payroll jobs might be quickly diminishing.
As a result of these negative developments, consumers are expected to have lost confidence in November. The Consumer Confidence Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index are at fairly depressed levels, having plunged in October, and are expected to have edged higher in November.
